Cognoscenti Group Founder and CEO Dr. Alan Dupont says the risk of war has considerably risen from 0.5 percent to about 25 percent on his own estimates, especially if Taiwan was annexed by China.
"Politically, President Xi has determined this is his highest priority. He's 68 years old, so he probably has the best part of 10 years to bring about the reunification of Taiwan, by force if necessary," he said.
"The balance of military power has shifted towards China in that part of the world and it's doubtful now if the United States could rescue Taiwan as it has done in the past."
The Australian’s Editor at Large Paul Kelly says the phrase “drums of war” used by the Home Affairs Department secretary turned what was a “very balanced and measured” message into a newspaper headline immediately.
Secretary Mike Pezzullo wrote a message to the Home Affairs Department for Anzac Day in which he warned the global “drums of war” are beating and Australia should prepare itself for a possible conflict.
Mr. Kelly told Sky News the message was “clearly written to be read in full” and if done so, it is obviously “very balanced and measured”. “It’s about support for the Australian Defence Force; it’s making an argument for peace, and it’s arguing, however, we live in a very very uncertain world where the military risk is increasing,” he said.
Mr. Kelly said the term “drums of war” turns the message “into a media headline” automatically and as a result “you lose the overall balance in the piece”.